For each GL revenue account:
| . | . |
|---|---|
| FTS Admissions | FTS Programs |
| KLF Admissions | KLF Programs |
| KLF School Groups | KLF Workshops |
| MCM Admissions | MCM Camps |
| MCM Programs | MHC Pgm Generic |
| Development Event Revenue | Kansas City Getaway |
| MHC Admissions | MHC Pgm Adults |
| MHC Pgm Crawls | MHC Pgm Groups |
| MHC Pgm GRP | MHC Pgm History Forum |
| MHC Pgm History of Hip | MHC Pgm Library |
| MHC Pgm Other | MHC Pgm Tuesday Talks |
| MHC Pgm Whats up doc | MHC Pgm Wkp |
| MHC Pgm WW1 | MHC Pgm Young Adult |
| North Shore Getaway | SRL Admissions |
| SRL School Groups | SRL Workshops |
…generate monthly, scenario-parameterized revenue forecasts.
I wanted to throw in what might be a really useful, hour-level plot before summing over the hours and proceeding to day-level analysis.
Hourly averages are in black, actuals are in grey.
Monthly transaction totals (dots) with predictions, and uncertainty (68% and 95% predictive intervals) in blue:
| Year | Month | 95% Worst-Case | Forecast | 95% Best-Case |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 2 | 19157.62 | 22637.78 | 26117.94 |
| 2018 | 3 | 37273.93 | 40938.57 | 44603.21 |
| 2018 | 4 | 37555.32 | 41151.78 | 44748.24 |
| 2018 | 5 | 40281.80 | 43937.69 | 47593.57 |
| 2018 | 6 | 52907.79 | 56504.23 | 60100.67 |
| 2018 | 7 | 82512.19 | 86168.08 | 89823.97 |
| 2018 | 8 | 78651.60 | 82307.48 | 85963.37 |
| 2018 | 9 | 46803.21 | 50399.65 | 53996.10 |
| 2018 | 10 | 43068.44 | 46724.33 | 50380.22 |
| 2018 | 11 | 32815.90 | 36412.33 | 40008.77 |
| 2018 | 12 | 22892.19 | 26548.09 | 30203.98 |
| 2019 | 1 | 19672.18 | 23328.08 | 26983.98 |
| 2019 | 2 | 19055.02 | 22534.93 | 26014.84 |
| 2019 | 3 | 39244.39 | 42909.27 | 46574.16 |
| 2019 | 4 | 34934.85 | 38531.31 | 42127.76 |
| 2019 | 5 | 40818.01 | 44473.90 | 48129.78 |
| 2019 | 6 | 54809.38 | 58405.82 | 62002.26 |
| 2019 | 7 | 80342.93 | 83998.82 | 87654.71 |
| 2019 | 8 | 67193.23 | 70476.31 | 73759.40 |
Clearly, using other sources of data than just historical totals would be a huge improvement, but the discussion in this section leaves that aside for now.
Some possible next steps I can think of:
These plots aren’t especially relevant but I’ve left them in because they’re kind of cool looking.
Removing groups and restricting the range from ~$-10 to ~$40:
We’ll focus on Adult admissions from here on out.
If we have a forecast of the transaction count, we can try out different (avg.) pricing scenarios as well as answer questions like, “What if I increased my admissions transaction count for adults by 10%?”
Let’s make a silly demand curve to get a flavor for what we can do with this.
Here’s some discussion on this:
http://www.museummarketing.info/2008/08/price-elasticity-optimum-entrance-fee-part-3/
We’ll use their demand curve. According to:
http://www.macrotrends.net/2548/euro-dollar-exchange-rate-historical-chart
…the exchange rate in Aug 2008 was about 1.4 dollars per euro.
IMPORTANT NOTE: THIS CURVE IS ALMOST CERTAINLY WAY OFF; WHAT FOLLOWS IS PROOF-OF-CONCEPT